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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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