Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Process

A number of members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.