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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.