Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
